By Martins Oloja
‘The promise of future vs pain of present: The spreadsheet fallacy’
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took oath on May 29, 2023, he announced two reforms in one sentence: “Subsidy is gone” and forex unification. In policy circles in Washington, London and at the IMF, it was hailed as bold. In Oyingbo market, Sabon Gari in Kano, and Oja Oba in Ibadan, it was felt as shock. Three years later, the divergence between the reform spreadsheet and the street reality is the biggest political risk to the January 2027 election. The campaign flag-off in Kaduna last weekend with controversial attendance is not just poor mobilisation – it is a referendum on presidential attention. People did not come because they felt the campaign so far hasn’t addressed what they live through. And the deepest problem is not just high prices. It is that the institutions that should cushion pain and build trust are either silent, captured, or seen as serving only the powerful.
‘How reforms hit welfare’
Fuel Subsidy Removal: The 24-hour shock without shock absorber. Petrol was N185 per litre. On May 30, 2023 it was N600. Today it is N1,400-N1,500 depending on state. Diesel is about N2000+. The fiscal logic was sound: Nigeria spent N4.5 trillion on subsidy in 2022, more than health, education and infrastructure combined. It was riddled with smuggling to Niger, Cameroon, Benin. It benefited the rich with many cars more than the poor. Or so it was claimed and believed. But the welfare logic failed on sequencing. Transport is 40% of cost of food in Nigeria. Food moves from Benue to Lagos by truck burning diesel. Tomatoes move from Jos to Onitsha by truck. When diesel triples, food price triples. When petrol triples, school run, hospital visit, going to farm all triple. Small businesses – barbers, tailors, welders, cold room operators, business centres – run on petrol generators because power fails. Their daily cost moved from N3,000 to N10,000. Many have shut down. All landlords nation-wide join the bandwagon: rents too triple.
Government announced palliatives: N35,000 wage award for federal workers for 6 months, N25,000 cash transfer to 15 million households, 3,000 CNG buses, N100bn CNG infrastructure, Student Loan Scheme, Consumer Credit Scheme. The problem: By the end of 2024, only about 30% of targeted cash transfers had reached beneficiaries according to World Bank monitoring. CNG buses: Fewer than 500 deployed in 12 months. Wage award: Many states did not pay. Student loan: 100,000 beneficiaries out of 2 million students. People experienced removal on day one, palliative on day 300 – if at all. ‘Forex Unification: The N460 to N1,500 Earthquake’. Before, CBN had multiple windows – official N460/$, BDC N700/$, I&E window N600/$. Big companies with political access got N460 to import. Others bought at N700. It created corruption – round-tripping billionaire class.
Tinubu unified to N1,500/$. Official logic: Price discovery, attract portfolio investors, stop arbitrage. But Nigeria is import-dependent for what matters most to poor households: Rice, wheat, fish, sugar – 40% imported; Drugs – 70% imported – Fertilizer raw materials imported – Industrial machines, spare parts imported. When naira moved to N1,500/$, a bag of imported rice that landed at N30k became N90k. A diabetic drug that was N5k became N18k. A bag of fertilizer from N20k to N45k. Local production did not scale to replace imports because interest rate went to 26.75% MPR, making borrowing impossible for farmers and manufacturers. So we got imported inflation without import substitution. NBS data: Food inflation peaked at 40.87% in June 2024, the highest in 28 years. Headline inflation hit 34%. Even after rebasing and slight cooling to 23-25% in 2026, food basket cost remains 200% higher than May 2023. Minimum wage moved from N30k to N70k – a 133% increase – but food inflation was 300% increase. Real wage collapsed.
‘The Northern farmer and insecurity – The double tax’. This is the most excruciating part. In Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Benue, Plateau, farmers now pay two taxes: Tax to bandits to go to farm, and tax to government in form of high input cost. Many in the North have abandoned farms entirely for 2-3 planting seasons. SBM Intelligence reported over 1,300 farmers kidnapped in 2024 alone in North West. Over three (3) million hectares of farmland have been inaccessible. When farmer leaves farm, supply drops. Price rises. Then we blame subsidy removal alone, but insecurity is equally responsible. Tinubu’s reforms did not create insecurity, but they made it more expensive – because farmer now needs more money for diesel, fertilizer, and also ransom contribution. Result: Nigeria’s food production deficit is estimated at 30-40% below demand.
‘Band A electricity tariff: From N68 to N209’: Government removed electricity subsidy for Band A customers – those who supposedly get 20 hours. Tariff jumped from N68/kWh to N209/kWh – over 200% increase. Argument: Power sector needs N3 trillion subsidy yearly. Removing it for those who can pay will allow DisCos to invest and improve supply. And it will free money for health and education. Reality on ground: Many Band A feeders get 6-12 hours, not 20. But they pay Band A rate. Small shops that were paying N50k monthly now pay N200k. Cold room operators shut down. Hospitals pass cost to patients. Hotels too greet customers with huge bills. For households, it is crushing because it came same month as fuel price increase and school fees increase. Three shocks in one quarter.
‘School fees and health out-of-pocket’: Federal universities were underfunded for years. After subsidy removal, federal allocation to education did not double to compensate. Government told universities to be self-funding. Result: Many federal universities increased fees from N45k to N150k-N350k. State universities doubled. Private universities now N1m-N3m. For health, NHIA covers less than 10% of population effectively. Over 70% of health spending in Nigeria is out-of-pocket – one of highest in world. When drug price tripled due to forex, when hospital now charges for diesel for generator, when doctor charges more due to his own fuel cost, poor household skips hospital. Maternal mortality, child mortality worsen silently.
This is why multidimensional poverty has deepened. NBS Multidimensional Poverty Index 2022 said 133 million Nigerians multidimensionally poor – deprived in health, education, living standards. Since 2023, with school fees up, health costs up, food up, that number likely worsened, not improved.
‘Then the trust deficit – Why institutions aren’t cushioning’
This is the part the governing party’s campaign is not addressing, and it is the most dangerous. Reforms require trust. Citizens will endure pain if they trust that institutions will protect them from exploitation, that savings from subsidy will not be stolen, that quality will be assured, that the powerful will also sacrifice. In Nigeria today, trust in public institutions is collapsing. How can administration ask for trust for long-term reform when basic quality control agencies are not visibly protecting people? This institutional failure feeds the narrative: “Government can enforce subsidy removal in 24 hours, but cannot enforce quality of service, cannot enforce anti-corruption against its own. So government is strong against poor, weak against rich and powerful.”
Why campaign messaging fails:
The promise of future vs pain of present: Campaign message is: “Endure, after 2027, you will see $1 trillion economy, refineries will work, naira will stabilise, student loan will reach all.” Voter’s reality is: “I need to feed my child today. I need to pay Band A today. I need drug today. I need to go to farm without being kidnapped today.” Economists call it discount rate – poor people discount future heavily because survival is today. Promise of 2028 does not pay school fees in October 2026.
The Kaduna flag-off and Osun yellow card: Poor attendance in Kaduna last weekend matters because Kaduna is core APC state, former Nasir el-Rufai’s base, key Northern vote. If the ruling party cannot fill a stadium in Kaduna with rented crowd and government presence, it means organic enthusiasm is low. Osun 2026 should be remembered: APC lost Osun, the home state of Tinubu’s political lineage, because voters were angry about economy and stayed away from APC. That yellow card should have directed strategists: Economic pain is political pain. If same apathy repeats in North West and North Central, where farmers are displaced, where food inflation is highest, where insecurity is worst, APC could face shock. The exchange rate on ballot: Nigerian voter may not understand MPR or GDP, but understands exchange rate. When Tinubu came, dollar was N700 black market, now N1,500. Even if it is market-reflective, voter sees it as devaluation of his life. Opposition can simply say: “We will bring dollar to N800.” It may be economically impossible, but politically potent. Because people feel forex burden daily – school fees, drug, fuel.
The spreadsheet fallacy: Administration’s strategists show slides: Reserves up from $33bn to $42bn, debt service down from 97% of revenue to 60%, trade surplus, Dangote refinery producing, Port Harcourt refinery partially working, GDP growth 3.5% above population growth. All true. But market woman’s spreadsheet is: Garri was N800 per paint, now N3,500. Transport from Iyana Ipaja to CMS was N500, now N1,500. NEPA bill was N8k, now N30k. Salary is same. Until both spreadsheets align, promises won’t deliver victory.
What needs to happen: “They need to be afraid of consequences”. Fear in democracy is good. Fear of voters should drive policy. What should the administration do in next 90 days before January 2027 campaigns peak? Direct address, not propaganda: President himself should do monthly media chat where he does not read speech, but answers: Where is subsidy money? Why is Band A still poor? Why are drugs fake? Why are farmers still not back? Apologise for sequencing mistakes. Nigerians forgive leader who admits pain. Rebuild institutional trust visibly: Direct NCC to publish quarterly quality of service report with refunds for poor service. Mandate telecoms to compensate for data loss. Halt further tariff hike until quality improves. Direct EFCC/ICPC to prosecute at least 3 serving or APC-aligned figures with prima facie cases to show impartiality. Security as food security: Declare emergency on farmer security. Create special agro-security corps to protect farming corridors in Benue, Niger, Zamfara, Katsina for dry season farming. Show number of farmers returned, not just number of bandits killed.
Real, immediate palliative that people see: Not cash transfer announcement, but: Reduce Band A tariff for SMEs by 30% for six (6) months; subsidise fertilizer at farm gate, not in Abuja; make NHIA cover basic drugs for under-5 and pregnant women free; compel states to show what they did with tripled FAAC. Stop assumptions, start listening: Cancel big stadium flag-offs. Do town halls in markets, farms, campuses where people can ask rude questions. The poor attendance in Kaduna is not logistics failure – it is trust failure. In the main, reforms are not bad. Nigeria needed to remove subsidy and unify forex. Even critics like me agree long-term. But reform without empathy, without institutional trust, without sequencing, without protecting the poor from exploitation by telecoms, fake drug sellers, corrupt officials – becomes punishment.
There is real danger in the assumptions that campaigns anchored on what reforms will bring after 2027 will be clincher. Reason: The same voter who is hungry, who cannot farm, who pays Band A, who buys fake drug, who sees NCC do nothing, who sees EFCC chase only opposition – that voter does not vote on future spreadsheet. He votes on present pain. If the ruling party campaigners are not afraid now, they will be afraid on ballot day in January 2027. So, here is the thing, Tinubu should address concerns of people directly. Not through aides, not through press releases and Op-Ed pieces, but face-to-face. In democracy, people are not data points. They are hungry, insecure, and watching who cares. The yellow card in Osun was a warning. Kaduna’s empty seats are second warning. There may not be a third.
The Guardian
