Nigeria’s population is already bursting at its seams leading to immense and deleterious pressures on its socioeconomic health. Yet, alarming projections indicate that a worse fate may befall the country soon.
The federal, state, and local governments and their multilateral partners should swiftly intervene with clear population management policies that regulate birth rates and slow an imminent population explosion.
An online statistics platform, Worldometer, estimated that Nigeria’s population will be 237 million by the end of 2025.
This indicates that it increased from 235 million in 2023 by over four million.
In 2024, experts stated that Nigeria’s population may surge to 450 million by 2050 due to annual geometric increases in birth rates.
While Nigeria’s population leaps, countries known for their huge population figures are slowing down to manage the associated strains on their economy, ecology, and infrastructure.
This country’s population statistics imply that it will be the third most populous country by 2050, surpassing the United States, whose current population is 334 million, Indonesia (277.5 million), and Brazil (216.4 million).
Nigeria’s birth rate remains. Its Total Fertility Rate – the number of children birthed per woman – was 5.3 in 2023.
Although it dropped by 1.32 per cent in 2024, translating to 5.0 births per woman, religion, culture, lack of access to family planning and contraceptives, forced child marriages, and unintended pregnancies continue to sustain its profile.
In parts of Nigeria, large families are traditionally seen as a symbol of wealth and status, particularly in the pre-independence era.
For many farming communities, children are often utilised as labour in the absence of mechanised farming tools.
The lack of family planning awareness, especially in rural areas, significantly contributes to uncontrolled births.
Religious and cultural leaders further compound the situation by encouraging childbearing through their rhetoric, despite the prevailing socioeconomic challenges.
Unfortunately, the high incidence of child marriages, particularly in northern Nigeria, exacerbates the number of childbirths.
According to UNICEF, 44 per cent of girls in Nigeria are married before the age of 18, amounting to 24 million child brides and placing the country third globally.
The alarmingly low levels of education, especially among women, severely limit awareness of family planning and the economic benefits of smaller families.
Contrary to some dispositions, Nigeria’s population bears little or no positives. It is a time bomb because it has exceeded its optimum population—a situation whereby the instability between population size, the needs of the people, and the resources available are glaringly unpalatable.
Alarmingly, the country’s population grows faster than its economy. As of 2024, Nigeria’s GDP was $253 billion, while South Africa’s was $373 billion with a population of 64 million.
Egypt has a GDP of $348 billion with a population of 116 million, and Algeria has a GDP of $267 billion with 47 million per Statista.
Nigeria faces a housing deficit of 17 to 21 million units, with critical gaps in electricity, potable water, and transportation infrastructure.
Also, 179 million Nigerians live in unclean environments per the 2024 State of Nigerian Environment report; 133 million Nigerians are multidimensionally poor while 4.3 per cent are unemployed per NBS.
Employment is erroneously calculated as one-hour paid work per week.
Nigeria has the world’s second-highest number of out-of-school children, estimated at 20.1 million.
These children represent a lost generation of potential workers, innovators, and leaders.
The lack of access to education perpetuates cycles of poverty and further strains social services.
The grim unstructured and reckless almajiri system overwhelms the landscape as it continues to produce huge numbers of poor, unemployed, and unskilled youths suitable as cannon fodder for terrorism and other criminality.
The implications are already manifest. The incessant violence on farmers by brutish Fulani herdsmen is rooted in the challenge of shrinking grazing land and a scramble for agricultural resources by many hands.
Uncontrolled births strain healthcare systems, while closely spaced pregnancies negatively impact maternal and child health outcomes.
With the doctor-patient ratio at one doctor to 9,083 patients, and maternal mortality representing 20 per cent of global maternal and child mortality rates per World Bank, Nigeria’s growing population stifles its progress.
In contrast, India and China have experienced significant decreases in fertility rates due to aggressive population control measures.
China introduced the one-child policy from 1980 to 2016 to regain control of its surging population.
It implemented birth planning policies, extended contraceptives to rural areas, and offered financial incentives to families that complied with the policy. This resulted in the prevention of 400 million births.
Despite criticisms, the policy contributed to China’s increased GDP, improved the standard of living, and led to the urbanisation of many regions.
Urgently, Nigeria should leverage proactive policies, and focus on sustainable development to turn its demographic tide into an advantage.
To make matters worse, Nigeria’s population situation is compounded by skewed revenue sharing and Value Added Tax regimes.
According to the CBN, the population density, land mass, internal revenue generation and equality of states are factors considered in revenue sharing in Nigeria.
Also, considerations for sharing VAT between federal, state, LGAs, and area councils of the FCT since 1999 have been equality (50 per cent), population (30 per cent), and derivation (20 per cent).
The blatant clamour by the Nigerian Governors Forum to retain population as a criterion for VAT under the proposed tax regime underscores their disposition to population control. The government should not continue to incentivise population explosion.
Unfortunately, the Nigeria Population Commission has continued to shift the goalpost on the country’s demographic data.
Recent reports stated that the programme would begin in 2025, the last being the controversial 2006 census.
Conducting regular and transparent population censuses is critical for effective planning, measuring, and achieving development plans.
It is crucial for population control implementation. The NPC must stop foot-dragging. It should begin formidable groundwork for a successful campaign now.
Crucially, Nigeria must implement and enforce a comprehensive birth control policy, prescribing the number of children per family and incentivising compliance.
It must educate and empower the girl and boy child to expand their horizon and achieve delayed marriages.
It should enhance skill development and job creation programmes to create a sustainable workforce to reduce poverty and dependency and bolster viable economic safety nets.
Mechanised farming should be rapidly implemented to eliminate child labour. Simultaneously, urban planning must prioritise affordable housing and sustainable infrastructure.
While the government should lead a robust awareness campaign on family planning, it should also engage religious, cultural, and influential leaders in shaping and adopting opinions.
Health and development NGOs should be involved in driving cultural and behavioural changes.
The media also has a crucial role in public advocacy and enlightenment.
The government must enforce laws against child marriage and revise revenue-sharing formulas to prioritise productivity over population size.
The Punch
