By John Dike
A former Chief Press Secretary to ex-Osun State Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has described the All Progressives Congress’ target of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu in the state in 2027 as unrealistic, warning that internal divisions could jeopardise the President’s re-election bid.
Omipidan, in an opinion article, urged Tinubu and the APC national leadership to address the grievances of party loyalists and avoid political arrangements that could weaken the party’s grassroots structures ahead of the presidential election.
He expressed concern over the reported emergence of Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke as the coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign in the state, warning that the move could alienate APC members who had worked to build the party’s political base.
The former presidential spokesman said he first heard about the 1.5 million-vote projection less than 24 hours after the APC lost the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
He said the subsequent endorsement of the target by the APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, raised questions about the electoral calculations behind the projection.
Citing previous presidential election results, Omipidan said Osun had never recorded up to one million votes for a presidential candidate, making the proposed target difficult to achieve without a significant increase in voter participation.
He recalled that the Action Congress of Nigeria secured 299,711 votes in the state in the 2011 presidential election, while the Peoples Democratic Party polled 188,409 votes. In 2015, the APC won with 383,603 votes against the PDP’s 249,929.
According to him, the APC garnered 347,634 votes in the 2019 presidential election, while the PDP secured 337,377. In 2023, the APC polled 342,941 votes, trailing the PDP’s 353,860.
“Historically, Osun has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he said.
Omipidan acknowledged that presidential and governorship elections could produce different turnout patterns but insisted that the party must set achievable targets based on the state’s electoral history and prevailing political realities.
He warned that sidelining established APC members in favour of new political arrangements could undermine the mobilisation efforts required to secure Tinubu’s re-election.
The former aide also cautioned Tinubu and Oyetola, now the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, against allowing the emerging political situation to create tension between them.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging both leaders to consider the consequences of decisions that could deepen divisions within the party.
He argued that political alliances would only strengthen the APC if they complemented existing party structures rather than diminish the influence of loyalists who had invested their resources and time in building the organisation.
To buttress his position, Omipidan cited the views of Drew Westen, a professor of psychology and psychiatry at Emory University in Atlanta, on the influence of emotions in political decision-making.
Quoting Westen, he said, “In politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion invariably wins.”
He maintained that APC members who felt excluded from the campaign structure might become less committed to its success, adding that the party must give its grassroots supporters a sense of belonging if it hoped to translate political alliances into votes.
Omipidan also invoked the Rational Choice Theory associated with economist and philosopher Adam Smith, arguing that voters often assess their personal interests and expected benefits before deciding which candidate or party to support.
He said the theory offered an explanation for why political arrangements favoured by party leaders might not necessarily enjoy the support of members and voters on the ground.
The former spokesman urged the APC leadership to engage stakeholders across Osun and resolve disagreements surrounding the campaign structure before they escalated into a deeper crisis.
He stressed that cooperation between the proposed campaign leadership and the party’s existing machinery would produce better results than a structure that placed both sides in competition.
Turning to neighbouring Oyo State, Omipidan advised the APC to engage Governor Seyi Makinde and other influential political figures to strengthen Tinubu’s chances in the South-West.
He said Makinde’s performance in office had earned him public goodwill, warning that the APC should not underestimate the governor’s political influence ahead of the 2027 elections.
Omipidan urged influential South-West leaders to approach Makinde with tact and respect, arguing that dialogue would be more productive than political arrogance.
He warned that any significant loss of support in the South-West could affect Tinubu’s broader electoral calculations, urging the APC to begin consultations early rather than wait until the campaign gathered momentum.
He concluded that Tinubu’s re-election prospects in the region would depend partly on the party’s ability to reconcile competing interests, strengthen its grassroots network and adopt strategies suited to the political realities of individual states.
According to him, ambitious vote projections and alliances among prominent politicians would not guarantee electoral success unless the APC addressed local grievances and secured the active participation of its members.
