International concerns about Nigeria’s high fertility rate call for a deeper reflection on our national demography and its implications. Clearly, Nigeria’s bourgeoning young population is a potential national asset and the envy of developed nations.
But without a clear-cut plan for their general well-being, especially quality education and job opportunities, the future is bleak and a reason to rue high fertility.
Globally, the population is one of those indices through which nations are measured for their strength or the lack of it. Population strength is as potent as the economic power of a country, its political influence and its military might in the comity of nations. And closely tied to population is the average fertility rate that obtains from one country to the other.
Given the significance, a recent global ranking placed Nigeria as the 8th most fertile country in the world, and in an odd category crowded by fellow African countries. Notably, Nigeria and the like have continued to increase the global population at a time the world is slowing down and has recorded a 50 percent drop in fertility. According to the report published by Daily Mail UK, the global average number of children born to each woman is now 2.3, compared to 4.7 in 1970.
While swathes of Europe and North America are recording less than two births per woman on average, Africa is leading with Somalia (6.4), Chad (6.4), The Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.2), Mali (6.0), the Central African Republic (6.0), Angola (5.4), Nigeria (5.3), Burundi (5.2) and Benin (5.1). The case of Nigeria already stands out for analysts, given the estimated population (without an actual headcount though) in excess of 206 million people – and the seventh most populous country in the world.
Indeed, the debate on the values of a large population is not new. In fact, there are two broad schools of thought regarding population and development. The population might be a demographic dividend or a demographic disaster. That is, it could be a great economic, political, and social asset if well harnessed. Otherwise, it is a liability and time bomb of incalculable destruction waiting to happen.
The Malthusian argument of finite resources already forewarned the negative impact of overpopulation, which includes high-level unemployment, hunger, food crisis, and crime rates – and other social ills that are now self-evident in Nigeria and part of the African continent. Again, an unwieldy and poorly managed population increases the number of out-of-school children, which the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) already pegs at 18.5 million in Nigeria alone.
In addition, is fiery competition for scarce resources and seething social tension, coupled with poor access to healthcare, education, and a general sense of despondency. Not far-fetched in that setting are overcrowding, depletion of natural resources, and environmental degradation.
Population, vis-à-vis available resources, already places Nigeria in a dire strait. Hence, the need to be wary of unbridled population spikes. Because the socio-political and economic structures prevalent in society are usually the deciding factor of population policy, concerned stakeholders have consistently said that the very low level of Nigeria’s utilisation of available resources has set the country up for a minimal population growth rate – if it must avert disaster.
So, population growth must slow down until Nigeria gets the socioeconomic parameters right. Therefore, at present, the political officeholders need to stabilise the political economy, and come up with and enforce a policy that will keep the population within manageable limits; not discounting civic education to slow down the birth rate.
On the flip side of the narrative, however, the population positivists argue that a large demography is not the problem per se, but the poor management of its potential. They argued that declining fertility rates could lead to a stagnant population, which is crippling many advanced economies and overwhelming public support systems.
Currently, falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. No fewer than 23 nations – including Spain and Japan – are expected to see their populations halve by 2100. Researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation also showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 – and their study projects it will fall below 1.7 by the turn of this century. The implication is that countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
On the contrary, Nigeria’s rapidly growing population is giving life to the baby food market and industries. According to a research firm, the Nigerian baby food market has a promising future and is expected to reach over N200 billion by 2023 on the back of the high birth rate and fertility rate. While multinational companies (MNCs) are already enjoying steady patronage from the Nigerian baby food market, the market remains an untapped opportunity for Nigerians.
More importantly, a large youth population presupposes a maximum number in the workforce, with dynamic and innovative qualities that Nigerians have routinely exemplified globally. Where it is well-harnessed, that generally implies a productive population that is the hallmark of the industrialised world. It means a lower dependent population and a better standard of living. With more taxes from a large population that is productively engaged, enough revenue can be sourced to improve benefits for those in the dependent age group, thus creating a happier society.
Similarly, a healthy and productive population increases a country’s international prestige when looked at in terms of available manpower. It is a guarantee of a respectable voice in the international community and could improve a nation’s standing in shaping global opinion. A large population, when properly harnessed or built as productive capital, is sure to be a source of security against external aggression.
On the comparative scale, the argument favours a large productive population of which Nigeria and other African countries should ordinarily be proud. It forecloses using the European and Western countries’ low fertility model as a measuring rod or model for demographic policies in Africa. However, what is missing continent-wide is turning both human and natural resources into assets of sustainable development. And Nigeria has both resources aplenty.
With a yearly population growth of 2.5 percent and a stockpile of plentiful energy resources in crude oil and gas, Nigeria should be the envy of the world. The country has the largest population of young people globally, with a median age of 18.1 years. About 70 percent of the population is under 30, and 42 percent are under the age of 15.3. This demonstrates that her willpower for a prosperous future will come from her teeming, vibrant youths. None of the 10 most populous countries in the world have such a vibrant energy level!
Already, Nigerian youths are innovative and resilient even when they are not given a chance. And if presented with opportunities, they will excel in all fields of enterprise on the planet Earth. Against all odds, young people are starting small and micro-businesses, with many of these providing small to medium-sized solutions. According to the Ministry of Trade and Investment, Nigeria’s over 37.07 million MSMEs account for more than 84 percent of the jobs in the country. They also account for about 48.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as about 7.27 percent of goods and services exported out of the country. This shows that irrespective of their circumstances, young Nigerians are willing to work and create something to lift themselves out of poverty. In entertainment and sports, they are shattering the glass ceiling and challenging the age-long narrative of being leaders of tomorrow. Instead, they are demonstrating that they are capable of becoming leaders in the here and now. In that regard, the Nigerian population is not the problem and there is nothing wrong with the youth, but the quality of leadership that has steadily misplaced national priorities.
It goes without saying that one of the hurdles that await the next administration is the task of evolving a globally competitive population ahead of 2030. The outgoing administration, like others before it, has paid lip service to the plight of Nigerian youths and national development. The next administration, to be impactful, should draw lessons from the likes of Israel and Singapore which have proven that a large population is indeed an asset, not a liability! As such, Nigeria should embark on recalibrating its population as an asset to create wealth and change the narrative.
It begins with a firm commitment to national development. Good leadership, in a distressed country like Nigeria, should be rallying all forces towards one objective of rescuing the State from implosion. And the public officeholders must be at the forefront and a moral exemplar for all. Such won’t get by with the principle of ‘do as I say, not as I do’. Next is the dedication to general well-being, with a focus on contemporary relevant education for the mammoth of young ones to knowledgeably fit into yawning gaps in value creation. Besides those currently out of school, particular attention should also be paid to those leaving school with zero or poor qualifications. While more skills alone will not necessarily solve the unemployment challenge, there must be opportunity-specific skills certification and re-certification for everyone to find a place in the scheme of things. Even those leaving with top grades should be trained to fit into the labour market, hands-on entrepreneurship and community service education should not be an afterthought.
Nigeria should re-organise technical and non-academic learning. As such, school curricula must be revised for technical and entrepreneurial skills; and technical schools’ subjects should be taught by teachers with the right qualifications, instead of just posting teachers from any high school to teach in technical schools. This is necessary for graduates to get the necessary skills for jobs and self-employment in the 21st century.
The National Universities Commission (NUC), Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Industrial Training Fund (ITF), Nigerian Employers Consultative Association (NECA), regulatory bodies in various professions, and the Federal Ministry of Employment, Labour and Productivity should embark on critical review of different skills or knowledge being acquired in Nigeria’s schools at all levels to make them industry- focused such that graduates would be packaged to respond to the needs of employers. Furthermore, the Central Industrial Liaison and Job Placement Unit (CILPU) in various universities in charge of the Student’s Industrial Work Experience Scheme (SIWES) should be strengthened for the effective coordination, operation, and management of the nation’s future labour force.
In addition, there should be a credible census and issuance of National Identity cards to all Nigerians, to determine the actual population that will form the basis of economic plans. Collectively, developing and managing Nigerian human resources will help advance humanity’s cause and reduce the number of people that live in excruciating poverty in our country and continent-wide.
The Guardian
