By John Dike
A former Chief Press Secretary to ex-Osun State Governor Adegboyega Oyetola, Ismail Omipidan, has described the target of securing 1.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu in Osun State in the 2027 general elections as unrealistic, warning that the All Progressives Congress risks weakening its electoral prospects if it mishandles internal political relations.
Omipidan also cautioned Tinubu and the APC national leadership against political arrangements that could alienate longstanding party members, saying resentment within the party could undermine grassroots mobilisation ahead of the presidential election.
In an opinion article, he argued that Osun’s historical voting figures did not support the ambitious target, urging the party to develop an electoral strategy based on the state’s voting patterns, political dynamics and local interests.
He also expressed concern over reports that Governor Ademola Adeleke had emerged as the coordinator of Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign in Osun, warning that the arrangement could generate discontent among APC members if their established structures were not adequately considered.
“In war, just like in politics, strategy is everything,” Omipidan wrote, arguing that a strategy shaped by the ambitions of a few individuals could fail if it ignored the interests of the wider party membership.
Osun’s voting history raises questions
Omipidan said he first heard about the proposed 1.5 million-vote target less than 24 hours after the APC lost the August 15, 2026, governorship election in Osun State.
He added that the subsequent repetition of the target by the party’s National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Basiru, heightened his concerns about the calculations behind the projection.
The APC lost the governorship election to Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party.
According to Omipidan, Osun had never recorded up to one million votes for a presidential candidate, making the proposed target difficult to achieve without a substantial increase in voter participation.
Citing previous elections, he said the Action Congress of Nigeria candidate polled 299,711 votes in Osun in the 2011 presidential election, while the Peoples Democratic Party secured 188,409 votes. The state had 1,342,289 registered voters at the time.
In 2015, he said the APC won the state with 383,603 votes against the PDP’s 249,929, while registered voters stood at 1,407,107.
For the 2019 presidential election, Omipidan cited 347,634 votes for the APC and 337,377 for the PDP.
In 2023, he said the APC polled 342,941 votes in Osun, while the PDP secured 353,860.
He argued that the figures illustrated the challenge of achieving 1.5 million votes, particularly without a significant rise in voter turnout.
“Historically, Osun has never posted up to a million votes in any presidential election, and it will not happen next year, unless some persons just want to write figures,” he said.
Although acknowledging that turnout in presidential elections could differ from that recorded during governorship polls, Omipidan maintained that the distinction should inform the APC’s electoral calculations.
He urged the party leadership to set realistic targets and develop a mobilisation strategy capable of attracting voters across the state.
Warns against sidelining APC loyalists
Omipidan also questioned the political implications of Adeleke’s reported emergence as Tinubu’s campaign coordinator in Osun, arguing that the arrangement should not undermine the APC’s existing structures.
He said the party needed to strengthen its organisational machinery and mobilise its members in support of the President rather than create circumstances that could leave loyalists feeling marginalised.
According to him, members who believe their contributions to the party have been overlooked may become less committed to the campaign, weakening the grassroots support needed to achieve the desired electoral outcome.
He urged the Presidency and the APC national leadership to take seriously the concerns of party loyalists who had invested time and resources in building the organisation.
The former spokesperson also warned against political arrangements that could create unnecessary tension between Tinubu and the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Oyetola, a prominent APC figure in Osun.
“President Tinubu and Oyetola must tread softly and cautiously,” he wrote, urging both leaders to consider the consequences of the emerging political dynamics.
Omipidan argued that the party’s national leadership should not underestimate the resentment that could arise if members perceived the arrangement as favouring a few political actors at the expense of the wider party structure.
He maintained that the success of Tinubu’s re-election campaign would depend partly on the APC’s ability to reconcile competing interests and keep its members actively involved in mobilisation.
According to him, political strategies must reflect the peculiarities of individual states because an approach that succeeds in one part of the country may not produce similar results elsewhere.
He said Osun’s political culture, voters’ expectations and prevailing interests should guide the party’s preparations for the 2027 election.
Omipidan added that electoral mobilisation involved more than bringing prominent political figures together or announcing ambitious vote targets, noting that political loyalties, personal interests, emotions and expectations could influence voters’ decisions.
Citing Drew Westen, a professor in the Departments of Psychology and Psychiatry at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, he wrote, “In politics, when reason and emotion collide, emotion invariably wins.”
He argued that the observation was relevant to Osun’s political situation, where the handling of alliances and party structures could determine whether APC members actively supported the President’s re-election bid.
Omipidan said even an arrangement considered advantageous by party leaders could encounter resistance if those expected to implement it believed their interests had been ignored.
He therefore called for an inclusive campaign structure that would accommodate competing interests without alienating existing party members.
Cites voters’ self-interest
The former spokesperson also invoked the Rational Choice Theory associated with economist and philosopher Adam Smith to explain how personal interests could influence voting behaviour.
He said his earlier work applying the theory to electoral decisions showed that voters considered not only candidates’ identities and party affiliations but also their personal interests and the benefits they expected from available choices.
According to him, the theory helps explain why political arrangements that appear beneficial to party leaders do not automatically translate into widespread support among members or voters.
He argued that some APC members could interpret Adeleke’s reported emergence as Tinubu’s campaign coordinator as a development that primarily benefited a limited number of political actors.
Such perceptions, he warned, could affect their willingness to contribute to the campaign, regardless of whether the concerns were justified.
Omipidan urged the party leadership to avoid creating the impression that longstanding loyalists were being sacrificed for political convenience.
He said members would be more willing to contribute to the campaign if they believed they had a meaningful stake in the process.
While acknowledging that political alliances could expand a candidate’s reach, he maintained that they should not come at the expense of the APC’s established grassroots network in Osun.
He called for greater engagement with party stakeholders to address concerns about the emerging campaign arrangement before they developed into deeper divisions.
In his view, cooperation between the campaign coordinator and the party structure would be more productive than an arrangement that appeared to place them in competition.
Urges APC to engage Makinde
Turning to neighbouring Oyo State, Omipidan urged the APC to engage Governor Seyi Makinde and other influential political stakeholders to strengthen Tinubu’s position in the South-West.
He argued that Oyo required a different political approach, noting that Makinde’s performance as governor could influence voters’ assessment of his standing ahead of the 2027 elections.
According to Omipidan, the governor had earned considerable public goodwill through his administration’s activities, and the APC should not underestimate his influence in the state.
He suggested that respected political leaders in the South-West should initiate discussions with Makinde to explore areas of mutual political interest.
Such engagement, he said, should be conducted with tact and respect rather than from a position of superiority or political arrogance.
Omipidan also urged the APC to consider the implications of changes in the political alliances that contributed to Tinubu’s performance in the South-West during the 2023 presidential election.
He warned that a significant decline in support across the region could affect the party’s broader electoral calculations in 2027.
Although he expressed confidence that Oyo’s political situation could be managed through dialogue, he stressed the need to engage influential stakeholders early rather than wait until the presidential campaign gathered momentum.
Calls for caution ahead of 2027
Omipidan concluded that Tinubu’s re-election campaign in the South-West required a strategy grounded in political realities, inclusive engagement and a clear understanding of local interests.
He maintained that the involvement of prominent political figures and the announcement of ambitious electoral targets would not automatically translate into votes.
According to him, the APC must strengthen its structures in Osun, address the concerns of aggrieved members and ensure that its campaign arrangements encourage rather than discourage grassroots participation.
He also urged the party to pursue dialogue in Oyo State and avoid approaches that could damage relationships with influential political stakeholders.
Omipidan said the central question was whether the political arrangements being developed ahead of 2027 would unite the interests needed for effective mobilisation or create further divisions within the party’s support base.
He warned that ignoring local political sentiments could have consequences when voters eventually make their choices at the polls.
