INEC ballot box. Photo: INEC
By John Kokome
As Nigeria gradually enters the political season ahead of the 2027 general elections, there is a growing temptation among politicians to return to the familiar playbook: aggressive campaigns, endless promises, political propaganda, ethnic calculations, religious sentiments and the mobilisation of money and machinery.
But if the political class is paying attention, the recent Osun election should offer a sobering lesson. Elections are no longer simply contests between political parties or exercises in political arithmetic. They are increasingly becoming referendums on performance, credibility, organisation and the relationship between politicians and the people.
The Osun experience should therefore be more than another election victory or defeat to be celebrated by one camp and rationalised by another. It should be a warning to every politician preparing for 2027.
The first lesson is that the people are watching.
For too long, Nigerian politicians have behaved as though voters can be permanently manipulated with slogans, inducements and election-day theatrics. But voters are becoming more discerning. They may still respond to material incentives, but they also remember who governed well, who failed, who showed up and who disappeared after collecting their votes.
The second lesson is that political structures cannot replace public trust.
A party may possess powerful godfathers, influential leaders, vast resources and impressive campaign machinery, but these cannot indefinitely compensate for a credibility deficit. Political structures are important, but they work best when they are reinforced by genuine voter confidence.
The third lesson is that incumbency is not an automatic guarantee of victory.
Those who occupy political offices must understand that public office comes with a political bill that eventually falls due. Roads, schools, healthcare, jobs, security, salaries, infrastructure and the general welfare of citizens are not merely governance issues; they increasingly shape electoral decisions.
The politician who assumes that occupying government gives him an irreversible advantage may discover, rather painfully, that voters have the final word.
There is also a lesson for opposition parties. Winning elections requires more than criticising the government. Nigerians are increasingly interested in alternatives. Opposition parties must articulate credible programmes, build strong grassroots structures and demonstrate that they have the competence and discipline required to govern.
Perhaps the most important lesson is that 2027 cannot be approached as politics as usual.
Nigeria is facing an electorate that is younger, more digitally connected and increasingly vocal. Social media has changed political communication. Citizens can challenge official narratives in real time. Political mistakes can become national conversations within minutes. Candidates can no longer depend entirely on traditional campaign rallies and carefully managed media appearances.
The political class must also recognise that Nigerians are tired of being treated as statistics during elections and forgotten citizens afterwards.
The road to 2027 will undoubtedly produce the usual alliances, defections, endorsements and political realignments. There will be new coalitions and old rivalries. There will be attempts to weaponise identity, manipulate emotions and redefine political narratives.
But the real question is whether politicians will learn from Osun.
Will they understand that voters deserve respect? Will they realise that performance matters? Will political parties begin to prioritise competence over loyalty? Will candidates campaign on ideas rather than insults? Will politicians understand that democracy is not simply about winning elections but earning the legitimacy to govern?
These are the questions the Osun election should force the political class to confront.
The 2027 election is approaching. The campaign season may only be beginning, but the lessons have already arrived.
The politicians who choose to ignore them may do so at their own peril.
Nigeria’s voters are watching. And this time, they may be keeping a much longer memory.
– Kokome, a communications strategist and public affairs analyst, writes from Lagos via kokomejohn@yahoo.com
