By Adewale Momoh
As key actors in the Ondo State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) leverage their perceived closeness to President Bola Tinubu ahead of the 2027 general elections and the 2028 governorship race, internal rivalries have escalated into violent clashes that have reportedly claimed lives, Adewale Momoh reports.
The APC in Ondo State, once a disciplined political machine that delivered victories from the governorship to the presidency, now stands sharply divided. What had simmered beneath the surface for months erupted violently last week during ward congresses, exposing deep factional cracks and setting the stage for a prolonged internal confrontation.
Beyond the immediate violence lies a larger battle, one rooted in succession politics, constitutional interpretation, control of party structures and the evolving rules of electoral engagement ahead of 2027.
At the centre of the unfolding crisis is a cold but consequential rivalry between Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo.
Neither camp has openly declared war. Yet within party circles, the lines are clearly drawn.
Meanwhile, the crisis is not only compounding the already fragile security situation in the Sunshine State; it is also slowing governance, with the machinery of government increasingly consumed by politicking.
Worse still, amid the turmoil within the ruling party, there is no visible or organised opposition capable of holding the government to account.
The ward congress flashpoint
The immediate flashpoint was the APC ward congresses statewide. Ordinarily, such exercises are routine internal mechanisms for electing grassroots officers. But in Ondo, they became strategic battlegrounds.
“Ward and local government executives determine delegate lists. Whoever controls them controls future primaries,” said Biodun Akolade, a party member in Owo.
Control of ward structures is not merely symbolic. It determines access to delegates, influences nomination processes and shapes power negotiations ahead of major elections. With the 2027 general elections looming and the 2028 governorship contest on the horizon, the congresses were interpreted as the first decisive move in a longer succession chess game.
Violence broke out. At least two persons were reportedly killed. The state party chairman, Ade Adetimehin, was assaulted. Party leaders were hospitalised. The secretariat became a theatre of chaos.
While neither the governor nor the minister has been directly linked to orchestrating the violence, party insiders say the atmosphere of suspicion and territorial control created fertile ground for confrontation.
In highly competitive political environments, elite rivalry often filters down to supporters who interpret internal contests as zero-sum struggles. When thugs are introduced into organisational disputes, discipline collapses.
Aiyedatiwa–Tunji-Ojo rivalry
Governor Aiyedatiwa, by virtue of incumbency, is the constitutional and traditional leader of the party in the state. In Nigeria’s party culture, sitting governors typically command overwhelming influence over state structures.
However, Tunji-Ojo, a rising federal power broker and close ally of President Bola Tinubu, has steadily built influence beyond his ministerial portfolio.
Loyalists of the minister say he has cultivated relationships with elders, stakeholders and grassroots organisers across local government areas.
“Under Aiyedatiwa, party meetings are irregular. Engagement is weak. The energy that characterised the APC in this state has disappeared,” a former House of Assembly member alleged.
He added: “In this environment, politicians will naturally seek alternative platforms for relevance and expression, which is why the minister is working hard to fill.”
Supporters of Tunji-Ojo argue that he has provided financial support to party leaders, strengthened grassroots mobilisation and sustained engagement networks. They insist that the support groups aligned with President Tinubu have become stabilising platforms for aggrieved members.
The governor’s camp rejects the narrative of structural weakness, describing the allegations as politically motivated exaggerations designed to justify parallel power blocs. Yet the existence of those blocs is no longer in doubt.
On the contrary, since his 2024 election, Governor Aiyedatiwa has steadily built political and social consensus, positioning his administration as inclusive and development‑oriented. Key to this has been post‑election reconciliation, as the main opposition withdrew its legal challenge, easing tensions and enabling governance.
Aiyedatiwa has pursued people-centred policies, including township road projects across all 18 local government areas, welfare programs for workers and pensioners, and targeted support for farmers and youth.
He has also strengthened traditional institutions and engaged grassroots leaders, creating a sense of shared ownership in governance. Politically, Aiyedatiwa expanded his coalition by integrating smaller parties and stakeholders, while emphasising fiscal discipline and transparent budget priorities to boost confidence among citizens and investors.
Through strategic public messaging, notably during the Ondo@50 Golden Jubilee, he has framed his leadership around shared identity and inclusive progress, consolidating both political and social support ahead of future electoral contests.
The constitutional controversy
Complicating the crisis is a constitutional debate that has become a proxy battlefield within the APC. Under Section 182(1)(b) of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), a person who has been elected governor at two previous elections is barred from contesting again.
However, Section 182(3), introduced by the Fourth Alteration in 2017, states that a person who takes the oath of office to complete the tenure of another governor “shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”
Aiyedatiwa was sworn in to power in 2023 following the death of his principal, Rotimi Akeredolu. He subsequently won the 2024 election in his own right.
The unresolved question: Does completing Akeredolu’s tenure limit him to only one elected term thereafter?
Supporters argue that only elected terms count and that he remains constitutionally entitled to seek another mandate in 2028.
Opponents contend that Section 182(3) is restrictive and was specifically designed to prevent tenure elongation through succession.
Within the Ondo APC, this legal ambiguity has been weaponised. It shapes alignments, fuels suspicion and sharpens factional boundaries.
The debate is no longer academic; it is strategic. If Aiyedatiwa is ineligible beyond one elected term, then 2028 effectively becomes an open contest. If he is eligible, consolidation becomes rational.
Adding another layer to the crisis is the Electoral Act 2026 (Amended), which abolishes indirect primaries and mandates either direct primaries or consensus arrangements beginning from 2027.
Under the old delegate system, incumbents often leveraged control of local executives to shape delegate composition. With indirect primaries eliminated, mass party membership mobilisation becomes decisive.
Section 84 of the Act emphasises inclusivity and direct participation of registered party members in candidate selection. This shift potentially recalibrates internal power dynamics. If primaries become direct, influence extends beyond delegate arithmetic to broad-based grassroots loyalty. Structures built through support groups and mobilisation networks suddenly become strategic assets.
With the new law in place, political observers in Ondo State believe that Governor Aiyedatiwa, who is perceived by some party stakeholders as lacking broad grassroots appeal, may have to intensify efforts to consolidate his hold on the party if he intends to seek re-election or influence the choice of his successor.
A party member, Adewale Johnson, says the governor would need to move swiftly to strengthen his grip on the party structure, as the leadership framework now being put in place is expected to remain intact until 2028, when his first four-year term will expire.
“In a system increasingly driven by internal party dynamics, control of the structure could prove decisive in shaping the state’s political succession trajectory,” he said.
In Ondo, Tinubu-aligned groups such as the Asiwaju Mandate Group (AMG), Grassroots Movement for Tinubu (GMT) and PBAT Continuity Project (PCP) have emerged as visible mobilisation platforms.
One survivor of the recent violence, Dare Adubiaro, described these groups as “a mechanism to contain discontent within APC.”
“By uniting under the support groups, aggrieved members have found a valid way to stay in the APC without joining factions within the state party leadership that they disagree with,” he said.
Thus, what appears as loyalty mobilisation for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid also doubles as groundwork for 2028 succession positioning.
National leadership
APC elders under the PBAT Mandate Elders Forum have called on President Tinubu and the party’s national leadership to intervene.
According to the forum’s chairman, Chief Eratus Akeju, the violent assault on party leaders signals erosion of internal discipline.
“When leaders are beaten and elders disgraced within the precincts of a party secretariat, the very foundation of political order is threatened,” he said through Demola Ijabiyi.
Ijabiyi alleged that hoodlums targeted members perceived to be loyal to Tunji-Ojo while sparing those aligned with Aiyedatiwa.
The governor denied involvement, attributing the violence to “miscreants” with vested interests in the ward congresses.
The national leadership now faces a delicate balancing act: intervening too forcefully risks alienating one bloc; remaining passive risks deeper fragmentation.
Beyond internal party calculations lies a more pressing question: what does this crisis mean for governance?
Ondo State faces economic, security and infrastructural challenges. Yet governance appears increasingly overshadowed by internal politicking.
Dr Gbenga Abimbola, a political analyst at Adekunle Ajasin University, argues that the crisis reflects a structural flaw in Nigeria’s party system.
“Once someone becomes governor, he controls the party at the state level, just as the President controls it nationally. Internal discipline has collapsed,” he said.
He questioned whether party loyalty today is ideological or transactional. “Those supporting Tinubu want to be relevant; they want access to resources and are eyeing 2028. The more they push for Tinubu, the more relevant they become.”
His comments underscore a broader concern: when party structures become instruments of succession negotiation, governance becomes secondary.
The APC in Ondo has historically experienced internal tensions, particularly during the era of Rotimi Akeredolu. Yet Akeredolu maintained centralised control through assertive leadership and strategic alliances.
When Akeredolu died in 2023, it required national intervention before stakeholders conceded to Aiyedatiwa’s emergence as successor. That episode revealed latent fractures that never fully healed.
Today’s confrontation may be less a sudden rupture and more the culmination of unresolved alignments from that transition period.
As 2027 approaches, three possible trajectories emerge: a negotiated power balance, or elite bargaining that produces a working arrangement between the governor’s camp and the minister’s bloc.
Legal Clarification: A constitutional interpretation, possibly through judicial pronouncement, resolves eligibility disputes and resets calculations.
For now, the Ondo APC stands at a crossroads. The violence at the ward congresses was not merely an organisational breakdown; it was an early signal of a larger contest over succession, legality, and structural command.
The battle is less about ideology than about survival, leverage and future positioning.
Whether reconciliation emerges or rivalry intensifies will shape not only the party’s internal coherence but also the broader political trajectory of Ondo State as it marches toward 2027 and ultimately the decisive 2028 governorship race.
What is unfolding is not simply a struggle for party offices. It is a test of how Nigerian political parties manage ambition, succession and constitutional boundaries in an era where loyalty networks, grassroots mobilisation and elite negotiations intersect in increasingly volatile ways.
And in Ondo, the first shots have already been fired.
The Guardian
